Khác biệt giữa bản sửa đổi của “Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Magic/Prophecy”

→‎Analysis: small wording changes; memory extraction as with Pensieve
(Rejected the last text change (by and restored revision 3307589 by Chazz - rv petty vandalism)
(→‎Analysis: small wording changes; memory extraction as with Pensieve)
== Analysis ==
A clear distinction must be drawn between Divination, which is taught as an academic subject but which is clearly little better than Muggle fortune-telling, involving the same artifactsmethods and equipment, and Prophecy, which has a basis in reality but is apparently innate and unteachable.
Recordings taken from the memories of witnesses to prophecies, via the same techniques used with a [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Magic/Pensieve|Pensieve]], and stored in crystal spheres, are kept in the Department of Mysteries, in a store-room associated with the areas used for the study of the mystery of Time. As the areas involved with the study of the Mysteries are interconnected in the same way that the Mysteries are, it is unsurprising that there is also apparently some interconnection between the Prophecy warehouse and the areas devoted to the mysteries of Consciousness and Death.
Prophecy itself seems to be surprisingly common; in the [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Major Events/Battle at the Department of Mysteries|Battle at the Department of Mysteries]] at the end of [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Books/Order of the Phoenix|''Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix'']], it appears that there are many shelves full of recorded prophecies. The prophecy regarding Harry and Voldemort is in row 97 of the prophecy warehouse, and the rows are evidently quite long, and the prophecies small. We can conservatively estimate that there are 200 prophecies on a set of shelves 6 feet (2 metres) high by 3 feet (1 metre) wide. If a row is 60 feet (20 metres) long, each row holds 4,000 prophecies, and with 97 rows there must be approximately 400,000 prophecies in storage. [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Characters/Ollivander|Ollivander's]] wand shop has been in business since 382 BC, which argues a Wizarding presence in England since at least that time; let us assume that prophecies have been accumulating since then, a total of roughly 2,500 years, or about 160 prophecies a year. If we guess that 1% of the Wizarding population is gifted with the true ability, that would mean somewhere between 30 and 100 prophets are in business at any given time, based on our calculations as to the number of wizards in England – see the [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Places/Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry#School population|article on Hogwarts]] for the determination of Wizarding population. This would mean that the average prophet or prophetess would be turning out between two and six prophecies every year. (This estimate is actually very low, as it assumes constant Wizarding population, rather than the population growth that England has seen since 400BC. The British population in the Iron Age, about 100 BC, has been estimated at 3 to 4 million, against 58,000,000 in 1997. If the one wizard per 6000 or one wizard in 20,000 rule applied that far back, the UK wizard population would be one tenth the estimates above, leaving us somewhere between 3 and 10 very busy prophets, who probably would have to average between twenty and sixty prophecies a year.) The one prophetess we see, [[Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Characters/Sybill Trelawney|Professor Trelawney]], with two valid prophecies in seventeen years, does significantly worse than average.

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